politics are so much more fun than british politics. >> i don't know about that. we put a couple clips side by side. we're going to let you decide. great britain or america. >> will he please confirm you will support a further round this order and that funding is available so that businesses, university universities -- >> now, sure, sure, mitt romney loves our lakes and our trees. he loves our cars so much they even have their own elevator. in romney's world, the cars get the elevator, and the workers get the shaft! sure, he's made a lot of money. this is no red america!

there is no blue america! there is only the america that can't believe how bad this guy did in the debate! obama lost despite mitt romney doing this. >> i'm sorry, jim, i'm going to stop the subsidy to pbs, i'm going to stop other things. i like pbs. i like big bird. i actually like you, too. i'm not going to spend money on things to borrow money from china to pay for it. >> he [ bleep ] fired big bird! he still won walking away. romney won with the sound up. >> you're entitled to your own airplane and your own house but not to your own facts. >> romney won with the sound off. dude, he's yelling at you! look up! look up! what are you looking at? what are you writing that's so important? what are you doing -- oh, that's not -- oh, i didn't realize. that is impressive work. i didn't realize that.

maybe you could give that to mitt romney as a souvenir of the night he crushed you in that debate. >> my gosh. okay. >> so that's what he's doing. because i'm sitting there going, what's he doing? >> good morning, everyone. >> it makes more sense. it fills in the blank. >> that gives us proper context. >> it is friday. it is friday, thank god. i need two days away from all of you people. october 5th. >> mika, hold on. >> no, stop. >> you need a couple of days away from politics. >> no, i don't. >> mika, all day yesterday -- >> what you say off tv sometimes stays off tv. >> i'm not going to repeat what you said. i've never seen her so depressed. she sort of wandered around. >> it was just one day. >> i swear to god, she was wandering around getting lost in crowds. >> no, that's just how i walk. >> i swear to god, she'd go, "he

might win." >> no, i did not do that. now you're making up stuff. i do get lost in crowds, but that's because i have no sense of direction and i'm on my iphone. okay. >> chosen one may not be chosen this time. >> no. >> and it's freaking her out. >> it was a bad night. i will say this, i don't know -- >> it was a bad night. >> you need to say, excuse me, sir, you are not telling the truth at some point. >> i was at a rave the past 36 hours. what happened? >> can we get a close-up on this suit? seriously. by the way, this is what the kinks wore in 1965. >> it's also a little bit like vintage bob novak. >> bob novak? >> he wore the vests. >> did he? >> i think it's rather satorial. >> you know what else i don't get? i don't get why donny deutsch came on the show before. talking about the debates. they're not going to change anything. >> let's become a student of history. if you say there are 5% -- >> here we go. >> no, no, no.

>> you know what? nobody's ever been more wrong than donny deutsch. >> i'll explain why it won't change anything. >> could we introduce everybody first? >> with us on set, "time" magazine political analyst mark halperin and the chairman of deutsche incorporated who is also a student of history. >> yes. >> donny deutsch. >> 1 for 1. >> let's go to what the kids will be talking about all weekend. >> i'm still curious, though, about what everybody is waiting for in those first debates. i don't want to be cynical. i'm not quite sure what's going to happen there that's going to flip the switch. we've seen these guys. i know we haven't seen them together -- give me a scenario, for instance, an actual bac back-and-forth that could save one of them. >> what if one of them just didn't show up? >> would you like me to support my original thesis? >> help me. >> number one, 5% of undecideds. if we become a student of

history, one quarter of those are maybe swayed. we're talking about a 1% shift. number two, every poll before the first debate usually ends up being the stand-up poll at the end. number three, actually the leader now gets to be the underdog in the next one. he got his ass kicked in the first one, there's no doubt about that. what is it going to change? >> the outcome of the election. >> no, it's not. right now in a serious bet in front of the american public, there are 6 million or 7 million people watching as we speak -- >> hold on a second. you're not even talking about armed forces radio. >> the troops, donny. >> why do you hate the troops? i guess you're going to try to disengage them. >> 20 million people watching, let's make a serious bet. did he win the debate? slam dunk, no question, embarrassment. it is not changing this election. what can we bet? >> so we've wasted enough time here. i'll think about something. i do think, mark halperin, it changes on the margins. i think suddenly florida,

nevada, colorado, virginia, north carolina, all of these swing states that were close, i think if ryan/romney have a couple more good debates, those all go in the romney column. that was a freudian slip. but at the end of the day, though, the question is committee make up the big difference in ohio? can he make up the big difference in wisconsin? because if he doesn't win ohio, he's got to win wisconsin. the romney people still think he can. after that debate and after barack obama's performance, which was staggeringly bad. >> all right. >> no, i mean it. >> he's right. >> okay. >> i'm hearing this from democrats. and this broke through. we always hear about how americans aren't paying attention. they're looking at reality shows. this broke through, everybody was talking about it, not just how well romney did but how badly the president performed. >> well, just as i think it was premature to declare the race over before, i think it's too

soon to say that that performance, as widely watched as it was, is going to move numbers. we have yet to see any numbers move. i think they probably will some. and i think that on the other hand, did governor romney win the day yesterday in the news cycle, given how strong he was thursday night? he didn't decisively win it. he did one event late in the day. look at the evening newscasts. look at the morning papers. >> he doesn't have to win every day. >> oh, i think he's got to win most days. he lost about two months of days. i think he's at least got to win. for them to come out of yesterday and not win the cycle, again, i think the numbers will move. i don't think the race is over either way. but i think they need to -- they're still wasting time. >> i'm glad, mika, they actually kept him back a little bit. let's not have a mistake the day after a great night. >> that was probably one of the

strategies. >> yeah. >> but in terms of numbers moving, 67 million people, 67 million viewers according to nielsen with a few million more watching online saw the debate. and yesterday the president was on the campaign trail. large crowds awaited both candidates actually on the trail. president obama greeted by some 30,000 supporters in madison, wisconsin, came out ready to fight back finally and showed some of the fire that people were looking for in denver. >> when i got on the stage, i met this very spirited fellow who claimed to be mitt romney. but i know it couldn't have been mitt romney. because the real mitt romney's been running around the country for the last year promising $5 trillion in tax cuts that favor the wealthy, and yet the fellow on the stage last night who looked like mitt romney said he did not know anything about that. but i just want to make sure i got this straight.

he'll get rid of regulations on wall street, but he's going to crack down on sesame street. thank goodness somebody's finally cracking down on big bird. who knew that he was responsible for all these deficits? >> mika, what were your thoughts about barack obama not being able to deliver a single line like that when he didn't have the teleprompter and yesterday reading what his staff wrote for him so effectively on that stage with 30,000 people. >> it bothered me. we watch this every day. it seemed like some people might have been screaming at the tv saying, why aren't you saying that right now to him? it seemed prepared. but maybe that's the strategy. it was not satisfying at all. >> you know, willie -- >> it's like they took a whole day to respond. >> he carries this around where people are waiting till the next debate to see -- >> yeah. >> what is the depth of his understanding of the policies

that he's debating and that he's reading on teleprompters? because yesterday, as he was reading the lines off of that teleprompter, you sat there going, oh, my gosh, he couldn't say one of these things spontaneously on wednesday night. but he can read it pretty well off the teleprompter. it's like bill maher said. a guy that's given a million dollars to the campaign. i can't believe i'm saying this, but obama really needs his teleprompter. >> on realtime, if you were online during the debates, you had progressives answering mitt romney's attacks in realtime on twitter fighting back. >> thousands of progressives. >> saying where is that? i do think on the next one, we talk about expectations. mitt romney is this great debater. he buried the president in the first debate. if president obama even does pretty well, if he does start to fight back, you know the press will come along and others will come along and say the president's back. he was unprepared for the first time. i'll be interested to see how long this first debate carries mitt romney. if the president has a good second debate, does it wipe out

the first one? i don't know. >> i have a theory why that happened. it wasn't that he didn't have the facts at his command. it was that strategically, they said going in so much, you're here, he's there. there's none of this. there's none of this. when he talks, you don't look at him. when you talk, you don't look at him. you don't even respond to him. he's not there. and that's what translated to the pathetic performance and also what seemed to not have the facts at his hands. i think it was an overarching no-engagement strategy. these were simple facts. these were simple rebuttals. >> i'm saying this not as a conservative, not as a republican, but as an analyst that can turn on tv shows and go online and see progressives online, seeing bloggers, seeing cable newspeople answering the questions just like this. this is one of the great frustrations that chris matthews had and ed and the entire panel at msnbc.

they were so angry and i think for good reason because there were basic -- >> joe, this is an important question. it's not just the analysts, it's the average american had the answers for that. clearly, this was not like chris matthews knew and he didn't know. every person i talked to said, well, why didn't he say this? he could not ha he couldn't not have the answers. >> hold on. this isn't a debate or chris or ed. this is a debate to win the election. i'm sorry, it may have been disappointing, but there was something else going on. you have the jobs numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning in just a couple of hours. you have a lot of other things at play, and he's in a certain position in this race. there must have been, as flummoxing as it was to watch, a strategy. what was it? >> i haven't said this for a very long time. i'll say it again, though. debates are where you show your depth of understanding about politics.

i've seen 1,000 debates. i've participated in, you know, scores of debates. and you know immediately. you can just look around the stage at the people to the left and the right of you, how deep can they go? by the way, they pick up on your eyes while you're looking across at them. there were a couple guys where a guy was about to do a cheap shot on me, and i'd lean in and go, you want to? let's go. and they'd back off immediately. barack obama. it happened with hillary clinton time and time again where hillary clinton, chris dodd, joe biden, outdebated barack obama in every single debate back in 2008. every single debate. chris dodd, joe biden, hillary clinton just ran circles around him. and people say, well, why can't he -- at some point you just have to say, because he doesn't have his -- i mean, a great of a grasp on the issues as the people he's debating.

>> that's sobering but it's true. i still believe it's the professor. >> how can you be president of the united states, mark halperin, and, i mean, and not have these basic answers? >> well, it's more than i think the format than not having the answers. he spent a lot of the evening going after mitt romney for things that he thinks he can win the election on like taxes and medicare. it wasn't like he never responded to it. >> but isn't the format in washington is that you get in a room with someone and you go at it and you try and figure it out? >> that's what we're asking. has he been too isolated? listen, we talked to him. the guy is brilliant. he really is. but has he become so isolated there's not the back-and-forth with even democratic leadership? because the democrats will tell you, he doesn't talk to them a whole lot. >> he doesn't listen. >> and he doesn't listen to them. >> he's pretty confident of his own views. look, there are a lot of elements to why the performance was bad starting with he's not that great a debater. he ended up in a room with a guy

from his first answer was not the version of mitt romney i think he practiced against. so all the prep he did -- and he didn't do as much prep as he might have -- all the prep was against john kerry channeling the mitt romney we've seen for the last five years. >> what's interesting, mika -- >> we ought to be looking at that. >> we have steve schmidt on yesterday. steve schmidt would call me during the 2008 campaign. and it used to drive him crazy, and the mccain campaign crazy, about how arrogant the obama team was. he was, like, they don't respect us at all. he'd go, why -- you know, they don't think we have anything. and that was the attitude that they set forth. and i've just got to believe also there was a huge level of overconfidence going into that romney debate. kind of like the dukakis team had in 1988, that they were the smartest people on the planet, and they looked down on the waters and the great unwashed,

and i think maybe he was in shock that mitt romney came out and was effective as he was. >> or maybe they felt and maybe rightfully so, they didn't really need the debate as much as they thought they did. >> maybe they listened to donny. >> but i want to know, mark halperin, what you meant by mitt romney, who he was during the debate versus the mitt romney that the president might have been practicing against of the past few months or past few years. what are the differences? >> he talked in a different way. his focus was different in terms of what he talked about. he was comfortable with himself. he didn't radiate vulnerability of the kind i think the president was planning to exploit. and he was very careful in the words he chose. again, didn't leave a lot of openings for the president to go after him. >> i'll tell you something else that happened. we saw their cores. obviously, this has been talked to death as far as barack being a professor. we saw a businessman. when you're a businessman by trade, you're one on one. you're not in front of audiences where romney is not good. when you are a professor, what we saw five minutes ago in front

of 30,000, you're speaking out. you're never one on one. so the very thing we've kind of chastised him for, he's a businessman, a negotiator, that's basically day to day, you're debating when you're a businessperson. >> and by the way, the president, willie, doesn't like one-on-ones. he does not like one-on-ones at all. >> and he doesn't listen. >> again, when i say he doesn't like one-on-ones, i'm just talking about what democrat senators have told me. republican senators tell you that. well, you discount it because there's a big ideological war. but we hear it time and time again from democratic senators, democratic house members, he doesn't talk to us. he doesn't like being with us, you know. you know, on a personal level, i really respect the fact, he likes hanging out with his kids and his wife. and when he goes golfing, he's not going to go golfing and do what bill clinton did and talk to lobbyists or talk to members that he's trying to persuade.

he's, like -- i understand that logic, but -- and i respect it a great deal. i really do. personally, it's sort of an i did it my way sort of thing, but at the same time, i think it's isolated him so much over the past four years that maybe that's why he got blindsided. >> he'd better learn to pretend to like one-on-one over the next couple debates. if he has another debate like that, he's going to find himself in deep trouble. we shouldn't take anything -- as bad as the president was, don't take anything away from mitt romney. he was brilliant, he was prepared, he was everything you could ask for out of a debate. if you put wednesday night together with 36 hours later, this jobs report, it might be a little bit better than the august number. it's not going to be a great number. it's not going to be good. you put those two things together, mitt romney has a moment to turn the election. it's just a question of whether or not he can do it. >> so somebody asked me this question yesterday. and you guys, i'd love an answer, can anybody around here remember a time when the -- when

the spirits of the campaign so sharply shifted in one day? because what i heard yesterday, i mean, if i was in northwest florida, i'd be hearing a republican saying hey, how great, but i was in manhattan. and all i heard was one democratic friend after another after another just wringing their hands going, god, what happened? and they're just in shock. probably like the day after john kerry lost. >> are any of them changing their votes? >> what's that? >> are any of them changing their votes? >> no, not the democrats, but there are a hell of a lot of independents and swing voters that are sitting there asking whether the president's up to the task. >> 5%. >> over the next four years. >> even if he gets 20% based on that -- >> donny, the election's not over. go to the hamptons this weekend and don't wear socks with your italian loafers. >> i stopped after labor day. >> go to palm beach. have you guys ever, though, seen

such a turnaround? >> no. >> spirit is the word. spirit's the word. >> it's just unbelievable. >> one of the things that i think is overlooked about why this could matter so much is these are both really politically appealing, talented guys. they wouldn't be where they were without it. we all know what was politically appealing and personally appealing about the president. we see it almost every day. even if you don't like him, you've got to respect his politically skills in wisconsin yesterday. romney haters don't understand why that was so potentially potent is his performance was real. that is what mitt romney is like off television. >> mark -- >> he did it on television. republicans were -- because that guy in the debate, that guy could win. >> that guy was probably politically appealing. i do not think mitt romney has been politically appealing up till now. >> he wasn't, but that's the guy, though -- >> that's a real guy. >> if mitt romney has found his voice, which is actually his voice, and he's not playing a phony politician, that's really

dangerous because that's the guy that steve ratner knew and respected at bain and said was a revolutionary on wall street. that's the guy that turned the olympics around. >> i don't want to put words in steve ratner's mouth because someone like steve might not think he was telling the truth as well in terms of the content. >> and you can't minimize that, and that's what the president's counting on. >> it's ridiculous what you're saying. >> particularly obama on the news cycle, maybe his people are saying we've got to really hold him back. let's let the imagery with the debate stay with people as opposed to putting a machinist out -- no, the separate issue as opposed to putting him back in the stages literally and figuratively where he doesn't perform well. let's leave it there. i think it was no accident he wasn't out -- oh, wait. >> i think it was a brilliant strategy. i wouldn't put him out shaking people's hands and kissing babies after that night. that one breathe through the weekend. but mika, i know it's shocking. i think you may have missed my bigger point. >> i'm so sorry. please educate me. >> the bigger point was, not

what he said the other night but when i talk about steve ratner and people that worked with him in business and liberals that worked with him in business, people that worked with him in the olympics, they all talk about this great man. you talk to his sons. you see him in his family setting. you see a great man. and i've always said a great man. and i've always said he's a great man. he's a lousy politician. i think we may have seen the mitt romney that debated in 2002 in massachusetts that was a revolutionary when it came to bain capital. and turning companies around. very impressive guy. but i want to follow up really quickly. then we've got to go. because a lot of times we focus on the negatives and the mistakes people made. willie, i want to go back to something you said which i think it's just the best thing i've heard all week. because you have the same feeling i had. because everybody's looking at the screen going -- i looked up at both those guys on the screen halfway through the debate, and

the president had a down night. i go, these guys are both really smart. and i like both of these guys as human beings. they're good, decent men. they're great fathers. they're great husbands. and i said, you know, for all of the bitching that we do day in and day out in the media and that americans do, aren't we lucky to live in a country where these two men are fighting for our votes? >> that's a great point. that's a great point. >> they're great men. >> you can't call it a campaign about nothing after that debate because that was 90 minutes of pure substance. and it was so clear, two totally different visions of the country. they laid them out. if you're an independent voter, you can decide which one you think is better for the country. mitt romney i think finally gave a very clear explanation of what conservatism means to him. president obama, as he has over the last 3 1/2 years, explained his vision for the country. and now you can choose. it's right there in front of

you. >> you know the way i look at that? i have two members of my family, one working for romney, one working for obama, and i can see why both have made their choices. >> by the way, they both tell you that they're great leaders. >> great things. >> ian says romney's a great leader. >> amazing things. >> amazing things about romney. and, of course, mark says great, great things about the president. we're so lucky to live in this country. >> and my dad cuts them both down. >> yeah, he does. coming up, "mad money's" jim cramer joins us. also "the washington post's" eugene robinson and nbc news political director chuck todd. mike allen with the "politico playbook" plus willie's "week in review." up next, bill karins with a check on the forecast. bill. >> big changes this weekend. we'll watch temperatures on the east coast plunging. so enjoy today. a little taste of summer for everyone. first things first, the worst weather in the country right now as you're heading out the door is in central portions of illinois down towards st. louis. showers and thunderstorms rolling into the ohio valley

including indiana. have that umbrella handy today, indianapolis and all areas of ohio. here's the weather pattern for today. much cooler in the midwest. but the east coast, this is it. probably the warmest day you're going to see till maybe next april. we should see temperatures in the 80s all the way up there to connecticut, d.c., new york. humidity levels are lower with perfect sunshine. just gorgeous weather on this friday. so as far as the forecast goes for today, not many other problems around the country, besides the cool temperatures. so let me get into your weekend forecast. that cold front makes its way to the eastern seaboard. just a few showers in new england. look at chicago. only a high of 50 on saturday. so we're talking jacket weather. and then by the time sunday arrives, that's when the temperatures crash on the east coast. and unfortunately, it looks like shlig some light rain and cloudy and cool from boston to d.c. today, 80 degrees. beautiful in washington, d.c. probably the best day you'll see in a long time. sunday, cloudy and rainy. you're watching "morning joe." we're brewed by starbucks. i'm with sandra who just got these great glasses.

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28 past the hour. time now to take a look at the "morning papers." "the new york times," 23 days after the deadly attack on the embassy in benghazi, libya, fbi agents finally arrived to investigate the incident. the agents were escorted by dozens of u.s. special forces. and just this morning, turkish media reports two suspects have been detained in connection with the killing of ambassador stevens. nbc news has not independently confirmed that reporting. from "usa today," some of the country's biggest brands from subway to blue cross/blue shield are putting obesity in the spotlight. companies are increasingly using obese people in their ads to help change eating or exercise behavior like this nike spot released over the summer featuring a jogging 12-year-old boy from ohio. as part of the company's find your greatness campaign. >> best commercial of the year. >> is it really? >> really a great one.

brilliant, brilliant. >> now from our parade of papers, "the dallas morning news," american airlines is canceling dozens of flights to repair faulty mountings that have caused several rows of seats to come loose while in midair. 48 boeing -- is that bad? >> that's not good. >> is that bad? 48 boeing 757ss have been grounded. to go to mechanics who actually screw in the bulbs. come on, guys. it's not ha hathat hard. >> this weekend's "parade" goes inside the vaccine movement. it's becoming a new health crisis in america. >> halperin, i know you remember this, but there was a summer back in the 1980s where delta, they had a really bad month. >> that was not a good month. >> the plane that was supposed to land, i think, in louisville, and it ended up in frankfort. >> in the ballpark. >> it was in the ballpark. they were flying out out of

l.a.x. you know you go out over the water and the pilot accidentally turned off the engines, you know. you remember that? it was a bad, bad month. >> bad ski. >> they changed their slogan to delta, we'll get you there. >> eventually. >> eventually, maybe. with a question mark. are we there? >> we don't even expect peanuts anymore, but we are going to ask you to bolt down the seats. >> bring back pan am. >> bring back pan am. >> eastern. >> can we go to politico. >> trump. >> trump air. >> to let you know how great i am with investments, i graduated from college, my dad said i'll buy you some stock. like, you know, a couple hundred dollars of stock. what do you want? i said eastman. bankrupt in three years. i have not invested in the stock market since. >> smart man. >> buy high, baby. >> get me eastern and beta max now. >> i'm a beta man. >> let's go to mike allen. he's the chief white house correspondent for politico. >> i'll guarantee you halperin

was a beta man as well. i still have wings over america. >> quadrophonetic stereos. >> good morning. i'm glad i held on to my cb radio. >> remember those? breaker 1-9. >> convoy. >> mike, your lead story on politico.com right now inside the campaign, reinventing romney. how is the romney campaign doing that exactly? >> well, first can't forget happy friday. >> happy friday. >> happy friday. >> happy friday. >> and the romney campaign tells us they get that one night is not going to transform the campaign. but they think three to five days could. so they're being very intentional about the next couple days. monday we have that big foreign policy speech by governor romney here in virginia. virginia military institute. and everything he does is ads, his speeches, his debates are going to be in the frame of here's what the last four years have been like. here's what my four years would be like. because in the ads where in ohio

today, romney is saying we can't afford four more years. in doing this story, jim vandehei and i found two rising advisers within the romney camp, senator rob portman who was the stand-in for obama, who played the obama role in debate prep has become a much broader adviser, someone that the president -- someone that romney trusts. and he's given them a lot broader advice about messaging and stagecraft. earlier mika was mentioning -- mika and joe were mentioning romney's family. tag romney, the oldest son, as you guys know, very involved in the 2008 campaign. he's been less day-to-day involved in this campaign because of his business, he's been out raising money. he's taking a more assertive role. we're going to see him, both at headquarters and in messaging. so they're taking a little bit of a rising role. >> and then on the other side of it, you're writing about how obama's debate strategy bomb.

interesting because it implies there was a strategy for the debate. >> well, yeah. and donny's no-engagement strategy is exactly right. politico is told that he didn't want to appear too aggressive. >> finally got one thing right. >> he didn't want to risk something that could upend the campaign. so he wanted to be presidential. they, of course, turned out dialing down too far. >> mike allen with a look inside the "politico playbook," confirming donny deutsch was right all along. >> once. >> once. >> once in 40 years. >> pretty good. >> mike, thanks. have a great weekend. we'll talk to you. next, a fond farewell to bobby v. >> what happened to boston? >> what? no? >> come on. pile on. >> we'll talk about what happened to bobby v. and his impromptu press conference in the streets of boston next. customer erin swenson bought from us online today.

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we're going to get to bobby v. in a second. we'll let you collect your thoughts, joe. a little nfl last night. thursday night football. arizona cardinals undefeated going in last night, 4-0, first time since 1974, going to st. louis to take on the rams. first possession, sam bradford of st. louis drops back. watch this catch by danny amendola. 44 yards. that's one hand, hauls that in. >> wow! >> check this out again. >> look at that catch. >> one hand, brings it in.

nice grab. seven-yard touchdown pass to his tight end, lance kendricks. rams up 7-0 there. second quarter rams up 7-3, doing it on defense. kevin kolb is simply planted by robert quinn. >> oh, my lord. >> one of three sacks for quinn. the rams sacked kolb nine times in the game. fourth quarter, rams up 10-3. bradford scanning, scanning, wide open, the rookie, chris givens, 51 yards. that put the rams up 17-3. that's the way it would end. cardinals, no offense. they drop to 4-1. rams are now 3-2. the texans and falcons are now the only undefeated teams in the nfl. >> bradford actually had tebow numbers last night, 7 for 27. >> weird numbers. >> this is the first time in years that the rams are 3-2. >> yeah, i don't know if this will carry the whole season. it's good for now. bobby valentine -- >> how's bobby?

>> we knew this was coming. least surprising move of the season. fired yesterday as manager of the red sox after one year. suffered through an historically bad season. >> what was their record? >> 69-93, the worst since 1965. >> wow! >> thank you, theo. the worst general manager of all time, theo epstein, the worst ever. >> but he's turned the cubs around. >> i know he hasn't turned the cubs around. theo is the worst ever -- what do they call it? sabre matrix? thanks. >> we're trying to change the image of the yankee fan. >> no, we're not. >> we're not? okay. gave the red sox their first last place finish in the division since henry edwarner took over. >> mike barnicle is here. >> he's got a tie on. >> tuck your shirt on. >> watch how this press conference came about. >> that's not right. >> he's briding his bicycle. and he stops and gives a little

press conference. check this out. >> i'm disappointed, yeah. you know, this is not the press conference that i was expecting at the end of the season. >> how much are you going to miss the organization? >> oh, there are a lot of great guys. i've gotten texts from many of them already today. i'm sure i'm still going to be with them. you know, at least in their hearts and their minds. i mean, a lot of things didn't go well, but, you know, an experienced manager's supposed to put his finger in the dike and keep the water on the other side, you know. i just missed that. >> bobby v.'s a good manager. he had no players. >> he had no players. and by the way, the fans were on him the first week of the season. playing with the same team that had the historic collapse in september. >> yep. >> okay, what's next? >> when he got on them, they took the players' side. >> oh, yeah, got on them. and then they go, oh, you don't know the red sox, eating fried chicken and drinking beer.

that's the red sox. >> now they're looking for john ferrell, blue jays' manager. he was the pitching coach in boston for five years

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right now, owens corning ecotouch attik insulation is only $11.87 a roll. capitol hill as the sun comes up over washington. time now for the "must-read opinion pages" at 45 past the hour. we'll start with dana milbank who writes in "the washington post," "duck duck lose. "in the hours after the republican challenger mitt romney embarrassed the incumbent in their first meeting, obama loyalists expressed puzzlement that the incumbent had done badly, but he set himself up for wednesday's emperor has no clothes moment. for the past four years, he has worked eed assiduously to avoid being questioned, maintaining a

regal detachment from the media. obama was out of practice and unprepared to be challenged. the white house had supposed that obama's forays into social media, town hall meetings with youtube, twitter, facebook and the like. by relying on such venues, obama's argument skills atrophied, and he was ill-equipped to engage in old-fashioned give and take. >> donny, igree with that more. this wouldn't happened with tony blair or margaret thatcher. i wish we had more of that in the american system, but we do insulate our presidents. >> this guy in particular insulates himself. and the one thing that over the last four years, i've heard from everybody that has any connection to the white house. he doesn't listen to anybody around him. and he didn't listen to the guy he was standing next on stage with, and it's as simple as that. >> okay. charles krauthammer, romney, two

touchdowns. obama was undone on wednesday in part by his dismissive arrogance. you could see him thinking annoyedly, why do i have to be onstage with this clod when i've gone toe to toe with putin. obama never pulled out his best weapon, the 47%, not once. that's called sitting on a lead, lazily and smugly. i wager he mentioned it in the next debate more than once and likely in his kickoff. by the end of the debate, obama looked small, uncertain, it was romney with the presidential look. after a failed presidential term, so failed that obama barely even bothers to make the case, preferring to blame everything on his predecessor hinge almost entirely on whether the challenger can meet the threshold of acceptablibility. romney trushed the threshold on wednesday night. >> donny, you're shaking your head yes. >> interesting thought on how you can understand this could happen. in my mind, i think i was the

smartest guy in advertising. and if all of a sudden i'm on stage with a guy who's got a small advertising agency -- >> by the way, nobody challenged you for four years in a row. >> and i now -- he's describing his media strategy. it's like, what? i'm going to talk to -- like you can see the psychology behind it. if you're going up against a guy who has a little public access talk show and you have to go one on one, it's like you can't help but go, i don't deserve to be doing this. now, unfortunately, you've got to, and that's what happened to the guy. >> it is human nature. and by the way, mark, we were talking about this yesterday. it happened to ronald reagan in 1984 in his first re-election debate. he was terrible. it happened to george h.w. bush in 1992 in his first re-election debate. he was terrible. it happened to george w. bush in 2004 in his first re-election debate. he was terrible as well. it is hard to be that insulated for four years. and this one takes being insulated to a new degree, this president does.

as did george w. bush, i think, in his eight years. so i guess it is human nature to come out and be shocked that somebody's punching you in the face after being so protected and basically play some bubble wrap in four years like we do with our president. >> the president is usually pretty good when the game's on the line. and the game's going to be on the line in two weeks. he's got to perform better or it will be a real problem. i think just to focus on the debates forgets the fact that governor romney needs to perform in the next two weeks. he can't just wait for the next debate. he did a conservative event. he did hannity. i still don't get the logic of his friday. >> how many days out are we, and he is finally -- >> he should do "letterman." >> i get the logic of it. he had a great performance, mika. let it breathe through the weekend. >> willie's "week in review" is next.

oh, it is time? >> it is, mika. it's time for "the week in review." >> let's see it. >> at number three, deer lord. >> that was so [ bleep ] radical! >> a long-board skater got a real feel for the local wildlife of colorado's buffalo bill

downhill blood spill race. rider and deer were both okay somehow after the collision that was thoroughly enjoyed by the dude who captured it on his helmet cam. >> holy [ bleep ]! that was so [ bleep ] radical! >> skater meets deer still is second, though, to last year's bicycle rider meets 300-pound leaping antelope. >> whoa! holy cow! >> at number two, catch of the day. a fisherman on jupiter beach in florida hauled in a big one this week. the rare 400-pound marijuana fish. >> you're going to need a bigger boat. >> the guy stumbled on a million bucks worth of weed as it washed ashore in burlap sacks. that particular kind of catch, sources say, is best served wrapped in parchment, smoked slowly and finished off with a giant bag of cool ranch doritos. and the number one story of the

week -- >> i'm sure this was the most romantic place you could imagine here with me. >> mitt romney jolted his campaign this week when he stood toe to toe with the president of the united states in their first debate. >> mr. president, you're entitled as the president to your own airplane and to your own house but not to your own facts. look, i've been in business for 25 years. i have no idea what you're talking about. obamacare's on my list. i apologize, mr. president. i use that term with all respect. >> i like it. >> good. so i'll get rid of that. >> romney still fueled apparently by the pork burrito bowl he had at a denver chipotle the day before, was feeling so confident that he fired the modera moderator right on the spot and told him to take his friend big bird with him. >> i'm sorry, i'm going to stop funding to pbs. i like big bird. >> i don't understand. everything was just fine. >> sadly, governor romney did not treat the viewing public to many of his highly anticipated

zingers. >> barack obama is an extremely gifted speaker. you might even say he's a master debater. that's what she said? zing. you've got zing. >> captured the reaction to president obama's debate performance, we now turn the program to over to our good friend chris matthews. >> where was obama tonight? romney, i love the split screen, staring at obama, addressing him like the prey. he did it just right. i'm coming at an indumb bent. i've got to beat him. you've got to beat the champ, and i'm going to beat him tonight. and i don't care this guy moderator whatever he thinks he is, because i'm going to ignore him. what was romney doing? he was winning! >> the man. chris matthews. crystallizing it all for us. >> i like how chris was outside in the hair. >> it added to the whole, you know, aura. >> chris matthews was a man on fire. up next, "the washington post's" eugene robinson and mike barnicle joins the conversation. jim cramer 90 minutes ahead of

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now, of course, a lot of bellyacres on the left, incidentally bellyacheing not covered under romney's plan, paid attention to the words they said and pointed out that mitt changing almost all of his positions could backfire like this from npr.

"romney goes on offense, pays for it in first wave of fact checks." oh, no! mitt could lose the fact-checking race! quick, some fact checker should research how many electoral college votes the swing state of factchecklesvania has. because i think -- i think -- i think it's even fewer than north i don't give a [ bleep ]. >> welcome back to "morning joe." top of the hour. mark halperin and donny deutsch are still with us. mike barnicle joins the table. mike, what are you doing? >> tell them. >> i mean, look at this. >> mark halperin brought me some baseball cards. >> we are looking at 20-year-old baseball cards. >> what do you got? >> that's some good stuff. >> terry francona when he played for the reds. >> david justice. >> how old are you? >> do you remember this? do you remember the flipping? can i get a camera for a second?

this is important. >> wow, you're pretty good at that. >> whose card was that? >> mika, you want to talk about engender gap, all of us holding this? it, like, brings back a flood of memories. >> is there a piece of gum in there? >> yes. >> i'll take the gum. i like that part. >> there was a time where i could tell you what every world series -- >> what the hell, is this like 80 years old? >> 1903 to 1981. do you remember those cartoon cards in the world series? >> yeah. >> i still have those somewhere, but it helped me memorize every world series. those things were great. >> how old is this gum? >> vintage. >> it's not about the gum. >> this is where young men get introduced to currency, seriously. this was money to us. >> jack clark hit an enormous number of home runs. >> jack clark was a vicious right-handed hitter. you would not want to be playing third base. the ball sounded differently off his bat. >> really quickly, bobby valentine out, about as

unfair -- i mean, this guy was set up. you talk about a patsy who was set up. this guy was set up with a team that had the worst september in baseball history, the biggest collapse. and the fans and the media turned on him day two. day two of his first season in. >> i would argue by noontime on day one. >> it's so unfair. >> he was dealt a terrible hand. there was no way he could win in quotation marks in any way imaginable, given the lousy roster that he was presented with, given the strife, the dissension on the team within the clubhouse. yeah. but a very interesting guy. >> worst record for the red sox since 1965, and bobby v. had nothing to do with it. nothing to do with it. you have to look at theo epstein first. just a horrific team. >> you have to look at everyone. >> you have to look at the players. >> this is always the case nine times out of ten when a manager is fired. he's a patsy. >> he got set up, in a horrible

situation. and i've got to say, you know, i've been a red sox fan since '75. but the fans themselves this year were just -- just horrific to him from day one. you know what? give him a couple of months. and if he makes some bad moves like we've seen red sox managers do year in, year out, then fine. but the thing i loved about the guy was, he would play each game like it was the seventh game of the world series, go into his bull pen. he did everything he could do. >> this must be a very difficult time for you guys. >> not really. because you know what? you guys are grease. the yankees are going down because you've got to pay a-rod $250 million for the next 80 years. you guys are sunk. >> yeah, but i think we're in the playoffs and you're not. >> that's fine. i accept that. you were about eight months away from playing in the assisted-living all-star game. >> we are at the end of our empire. >> this is like queen victoria's silver jubilee. i mean, it's going down after this. >> that was the worst piece of gum i've ever had.

>> world war i is around the corner and the empire is coming down. >> pulitzer prize-winning columnist and editor of "the washington post" and analyst eugene robinson. good morning. >> good morning. >> gene, are you a nationals fan? >> absolutely. we have a baseball team that's on the rise, best record in baseball. >> you do. >> best pitching rotation in baseball. the last month of the season, best slugging team in baseball. this is a hot team. >> i'll tell you what -- >> can they plooease just be th senators? >> i'm going to cheer for them, but i'm going to call them the senators. >> we don't care what you call them, just watch them. they're really a fun team to watch. >> let's try and move this conversation down the road a little bit. >> go braves. go ahead. >> during wednesday's debate, mitt romney defended his tax plan, rejecting president obama's claim that the plan would ultimately raise the tax burden on the middle class by eliminating some tax deductions. the romney campaign has released an ad, claiming it's the

president who would increase taxes on the middle class. take a look. >> who will raise taxes on the middle class? according to an independent nonpartisan study, barack obama and the liberals will raise taxes on the middle class by $4,000. the same organization says the plan for mitt romney and common-sense conservatives is not a tax hike on the middle class. want proof? read the nonpartisan study for yourself at american.com. obama and his liberal allies, we can't afford four more years. >> i'm mitt romney and i approved this message. >> okay. and yesterday while in council bluffs, iowa, vice president joe biden shot back agreeing the obama plan would raise taxes, just not on the middle class. >> on top of the trillion dollars of spending we've already cut, we're going to ask, yes. we're going to ask the wealthy to pay more. my heart breaks. come on. man. you know the phrase you always

use, obama and biden want to raise taxes by a trillion dollars. guess what? yes, we do, in one regard. we want to let that trillion-dollar tax cut expire so the middle class doesn't have to bear the burden of all that money going to the super wealthy. that's not a tax raise. that's called fairness where i come from. >> mike, we love him. >> okay. >> i'm just wondering, because i'm not sure, it didn't work for mondale in '84 in san francisco, but should joe biden, our dear friend, be promising a trillion-dollar tax increase? >> well, you know, the sound bite is not going to work. yes, we will raise taxes. >> yes, we will. >> you wonder what people hear after he says that. >> a trillion-dollar tax hike. >> warren buffett will pay more in taxes. that sort of works but he never really got there.

>> they think the same thing as what he said last week after he said that the middle class has been buried over the past four years. >> i just don't think people that are dumb. >> i will tell you, though, i would be willing to bet some money that the vice president will be much more effective in his debate with paul ryan than the president was in his debate with mitt romney because the vice president is used to getting beaten up. >> well, that's not a really high bar, is it, now. gene robinson, you wrote "obama's off night gives romney an opening." and i do think that joe biden has been out there and is used to getting beat up. and i think will do very well in the debate along with paul ryan. but your column, talking about obama's off night. can you help us out here? we're trying to figure out what happened to president obama. where was he? >> where was he? that's the question. it was really, you know, you kind of watched the thing unfold and just wondered when it was -- when the debate was going to start, basically, because -- and when the president was going to,

you know, become president obama again. all the stuff you guys said in the last segment is probably right about that performance. and it's not that unusual, if you look historically for an incumbent president to have a rough time out of the blocks on the debates. and they tend not to do very well in the first one. that was certainly true this year more than most years, i think. you know, look. on the plane coming back, i was with one of the president's most senior advisers who just, you know, said hey, what can i say? let's move on to the next one. he had a bad night and we'll have a better night next time. >> okay. so this ad spurring a debate about taxes on the wealthy versus taxes on the middle class, mark halperin, the candidates go to virginia today. obama goes to ohio. romney goes to florida. in just about an hour and a half, we're going to have the

monthly jobs report out. according to a reuters survey, economists are expecting about 113,000 jobs added to the unemployment rate. how do you think that might impact the conversation in the campaigns moving forward? >> well, i think it depends how they talk about it. part of the vulnerability exposed in the debate was not just stylistic, but the president has trouble talking about his record on the economy because he's got to be proud of what he's accomplished along with an understanding that a lot of people are still hurting. and he has trouble talking about the future. so i think that the numbers are an opportunity for governor romney to say their strongest line from the convention is the one they're emphasizing now, which is why would the next four years be any different than the last four years? i think the president needs to try to trump that by saying more than just you don't want mitt romney. he's got to say, what is his second term about? and i think one of the biggest failures of his debate performance was, he didn't paint a picture of positive -- what a positive agenda would be like for him in a second term. he just tried to talk romney down. and the numbers are a moment

where he's going to have to do that and say why are these numbers bad and why will they be better if you re-elect me? >> gene, both camps have not really talked about the next four years. the romney people have been open about it up until recently when i think "the wall street journal" and a lot of conservatives have smoked them out, so they're getting a little more specific on deductions and a few other issues. but you could say the same thing about the president's team. they made the calculated decision to not talk about what they're going to do over the next four years. and that puts an incumbent in the position to do nothing but defend the last four years, doesn't it? >> well, it seems to me, look, what do people want to hear? i mean, really, what do people want to hear? why are they going to vote for one candidate or the other? it's what they're going to do over the next term. you know, we said on this program months and months ago that the winner of this election would be or at least should be

the candidate who lays out a sort of positive forward-looking agenda for the country. and who finds a way talking about the economy, our situation, where we're going, why we're going there in a way that connects with voters. and so we're, you know, in many ways, we're still waiting for that. i thought -- and i thought maybe that was the most significant thing of the debate the other night. i thought it was -- i thought romney inched closer to that. he's still not specific. he won't talk about what deductions he's going to cut and what he's going to do exactly, but at least he acknowledged there would be a future, not just a past he was critical of, and that he would do some good stuff, he said, even if he wouldn't be specific about it. >> gene, i think we ought to come to terms that we won't hear answers from either one of them in the next four weeks. and it's simple because you

can't give any clear answers. it's more what they say. if you really dissect what romney said, there were a lot of factual errors in there. he doesn't have the answers as far as the 5 trillion. he doesn't. and obama doesn't have the answers specifically what's going to happen. so it's really style at this point. >> i'll tell you -- and this is one of the things where the president -- again, surprised the president wasn't better on his feet. mitt romney actually moved the goal line. and what he said was -- and this is fascinating, i'm going to say as a conservative, as a conservative that's been obsessed over the debt for 15 years, i actually like what he's saying. i will not pass a tax cut that will raise the deficit by 1 cent. that's something new that we've -- we haven't heard that before. >> he doesn't logic that out. i could say anything. i could say i'm 6'5". >> and what i'm saying, no, it doesn't square up with what he's been saying in the past, but a lot of things that he said the other night were different.

and i think we saw mitt romney shifting to a general election campaign, not at the convention when it usually happens, but in the middle of the first debate. >> it was almost as if president obama were taking notes on all the stuff for later use, you know? >> right. >> why not jump in and say, well, just a minute, governor romney. you just said i will pass a tax cut, but i will not pass a tax cut because if you do pass a tax cut, it's going to add to the deficit. so which is it? you know, you're contradicting yourself in the same sentence. and that sort of thing. and, again, one has to expect that the next debate will be different. but i thought there were 15 opportunities to jump in and say, gvovernor romney, that doesn't parse with what you just said, or that doesn't parse with what you said last week or, you know, gee, what about the 47%? but anyhow. that was the other night, and i guess we'll move on. >> i think we have a tendency to overthink these things in terms

of the debate meant this, the debate meant that. most people aren't sitting around waiting for the fact checkers to show up. most people don't have paul krugman on speed dial to verify what was said or not said. but most people watching the debate know one thing about it. and they know that there's a lot of debate prep that goes on with both of these candidates. and to a certain extent, you don't really know what's going to come out of the president's mouth or out of the governor's mouth during the back-and-forth as gene just alluded to in the debate. but you do know one thing. that they have the opportunity to put together a package for an opening statement and a closing statement. let's call the closing statement the follow-me moment when each of the candidates gets two minutes at the end of the debate to look into the camera and tell the country what's on their mind about where their presidency is going to take us. the president of the united states, in his two-minute follow-me moment, was shockingly bad, shockingly bad. >> he was. >> and i think that, maybe more

than all the back-and-forth about the stats and the economy, maybe resonated more with people than any other element. >> and mike, that wasn't strategy. that was just a president who was ill-prepared. which reminds me, bud wilkinson, one of the great football coaches in college of all time, bud wilkinson always told his players, it's not about whether you win or lose. he actually meant that. all i care about is whether you're prepared. and if you're prepared when you go out on the football field, i don't care how the game ends up. well, this president was so ill-prepared. now, when you're president of the united states, you've got a few other things to worry about as well. >> yeah, you do. >> you do. but if you want to be president for four more years, you've got to at least have -- and why didn't he have a justification for his last four years in two minutes or less? this is what he said -- >> they should have played the bill clinton tape. >> this is what he said at the end of the debate that mike said

was shockingly bad which, again, reminded me, took me back -- and i know mike, you'll remember it, all you guys will remember it -- ronald reagan in 1984 where i just sat there in horror how he was going to try to bring this thing in for a landing. >> four years ago i said i'm not a perfect man and i wouldn't be a perfect president, and that's a promise governor romney thinks i've kept. but i'll fight every single day, i've kept that promise, and if you'll vote for me, then i promise i'll fight just as hard in a second term. >> wow, i'm trying. >> you're trying what? >> that's the message, i'm trying. >> i'll fight for the middle class. >> "e" for effort. >> every city council person from here to, you know, seattle, washington. >> he's got a lot to talk about. >> he's got a lot to talk about. >> maybe he had the flu. >> maybe he had the flu.

maybe that was it. gene robinson, does he have the flu? >> was it the altitude? mika said maybe he had the flu. >> didn't al gore say it was the altitude? bad night. >> yeah, altitude. >> there's no way to kind of spin it. and as i said, you know, very quickly, the white house administration spin team was spun out. you know, they just didn't -- there was no way to spin that into a terrific performance. you just kind of, you know, nothing to see here, folks. let's move on. >> let's move on. yeah. >> and, you know, we'll be better next time. >> let's move on. eugene robinson, thank you very much. the column is online at washingtonpost.com. >> you do know what's happening. you know what's happening here. it's like i said on monday, this race is not over. mitt romney could have a debate performance that could reset it.

e we're setting up the next act so obviously. we're setting it up. >> i was just going to say that. >> for the president to do well. >> and by the way, all he has to do well and it's a home run. he has such an easy, clearly defined role now. he just has to be aggressive and he wins. >> as my torts professor, dr. pierson, used to say, you should be able to see this next step coming like a freight train out of the mist. it's coming right at you. >> remember from the primaries, though, when romney got challenged by gingrich and perry, he was pretty good coming back. >> that's not so say romney won't be good. all obama has to do is have testosterone in the next debate. >> i think we see the new romney and he's going to be great. i think the president, just like reagan in '84, we keep saying it, just like, you know, george w. in '04. >> it's teed up. >> look, they're still looking at baseball cards.

>> nolan ryan, mookie wilson. >> i never got baseball cards when i was -- >> mookie acquired his nickname from his grandmother. >> all right. up next, "mad money's" jim cramer joins us on set. >> that's big. jim cramer, man. it doesn't get any bigger than that. >> cramer!

beautiful shot of the sunrise and a plane taking off in washington, d.c. welcome back to "morning joe." 23 past the hour. that was pretty. >> could have been t.j. thank you, t.j. >> here with us now, the host of "mad money," jim cramer. i don't know if he's mad. he's feeling pretty good. >> so jim, what are we going to see at 8:30? i mean, we're not going to -- not going to get great news, are we? >> is it going to be bad? >> a lot of industries not hiring.

a lot of industries still cutting back. of course the government's cutting back, housing not coming back. against that health care hiring, automobiles hiring, housing -- the apartments, better. >> so jim, i hear the same thing from business owners, small, midsize, large. they all say the same thing. how you doing? hey, we're doing pretty good. who you hiring? nobody. >> great way to be able to make money is to hire fewer. >> they're flush with cash, most businesses, but they're not going to hire because there's just the big -- there's a big question mark over what's next year going to look like? >> we have earnings coming out next week. we'll be looking for three things. how bad sales are overseas. that really matters. we'll be looking for people talking about fiscal cliff. everybody's using that as an secure. we'll see how many people they fired so it will make it seem earnings are even better than we thought. >> jim cramer, moderator of the second presidential debate, give me a question you would ask mitt

romney and a question you would ask the president of the united states. >> can we -- do we have to be particular topic that we have to stick with? >> nope. >> okay. i would ask the president of the united states, why he has not tried to figure out a way to be able to make it so that industrial america hires, okay? because industrial america hates hiring now. okay? and i would ask romney why -- >> wait, wait, what's the answer to that? how do you make industrial america hire? what's the answer? >> industrial america can actually respond to government breaks. industrial america would take -- if you allowed this em eed thet money back from overseas with assistance of hiring, they would do it, but the money's all overseas. they're not repate yriated. >> why would you let them bring the money back in and all they'll do it use it for dividends? >> that's what they did under the republicans.

they didn't care. they made no deal. these guys would make a deal. if you just committed to saying, listen, you have 10,000 employees now. if you have 12,000 employees a year from now, we are going to let you repatriate. but they've got to put it first. you hire, then you get the money back. because if you give them the money back first, they will just give it to shareholders. >> that's right. >> by the way, there are worse things to do than getting $2 trillion back circulating in the united states. because you know what, the shareholders aren't all gordon gecko. >> 90 million people. >> so i hear these people going, oh! they'll just give the money to shareholders! how terrible to put $2 trillion back in the economy! >> you can make a deal -- the government can make a deal. >> make a deal. >> for romney, i would say, how did the stock market go up from 9,000 to 13,000 if obama's so bad for business? he never takes that. romney, of course, doesn't want to attack on that issue because the stock market's been great.

obama never takes credit for anything, having to do with the stock market. i think he just thinks it's for rich people only. you and i know it is how people save for college, and it's how they save for retirement. but obama doesn't want to recognize that. >> i don't know about you guys, that's how my dad paid for my college education. he had worked for a company and invested in it, and ten years later, it grew enough that he could pay my way through college. >> i did the same thing for law school right through the stock market, was able to pay back everybody. >> if the president's re-elected, what are the chances that the american business community will think anew about him and be happy that he's re-elected and happy about -- and have confidence that he knows how to be a good pro-business? >> the answer would be because he goes to congress and comes up with a deal. if he comes up with a deal so we have some certainty about what our taxes are going to be and that there won't be massive layoffs from the federal government, he will be hailed as a hero because that's what people talk about, will it be oil or gas or clothing, apparel, retail. these retail executives say we

are not getting the sales we'd like because everybody is worried about getting laid off because of this fiscal cliff. it's in the mindset. the president solved it, bingo. >> you just said the word. if i boil down the past four years of economic hardship why we're stalled from every businessperson i talk to at every level, from the small business, bagel owner at bagel heads in florida to jamie dimon, they all say the same thing, uncertainty. if it's jamie dimon, you don't know how much you'll be able to grow jpmorgan chase because of uncertainty. if you're rob at bagel heads in pensacola, florida, you don't know whether you hire another employee because -- and every time i go in there, i hear about this tax, are they going to pass it? no. i hear they'll do this regulation. how will that impact me? i said don't worry about it, it will never get through the house. what about this? >> it's true. >> what the bozos in washington don't understand is when they go on the floor and make these proposals to play to their base,

they're scaring the hell out of millions of small business owners, and it all comes down to uncertainty. we hear it every day wherever we go. we're afraid to hire. >> if you look at the 18 different breaks that the president gave small business, almost entirely a lot of them require you to be profitable. come on. we know when you start a business, you're not making money. but we at least know where to go if we know whether government's going to say this is all we care about. they seem to care about everything. >> so jim, is it possible that for some of these businesses that are flush with cash, that are making profits, that they're using uncertainty as an excuse? is there an argument there? why aren't they hiring? >> i think everyone wants to beat the numbers so to speak, and you want to do it through growth not just through bottom line. money is tantalizing. this is billions of dollars. there's some industries that aren't growing clearly, technology is in entrenchment

because of europe. europe's not our fault. >> i'm not counting those in the question. >> mika, your question assumes that men and women that own businesses are looking for an excuse not to hire people? i have never met a business owner that didn't want to make more money, that didn't want to grow. >> and they are. >> that didn't want to hire. mika, let me finish, that didn't want to hire more people. you know what happens when you hire more people? you make more money. and that's why dooi-- and we've heard it. the president will walk into a meeting with all of these business owners. and he'll say to them, this is his advice, hire more people. hire more team. >> i want to do a real estate game. i'm trying to buy property. >> but they won't because they prefer their profits. >> i'm trying to buy property. >> mika, that's just dead wrong. that is just dead wrong. >> if you want to expand restaurant, small real estate business, you need loans, okay. but all you want to do, if you have one building is to do two buildings. one restaurant, two restaurants

because you know what you're doing. you've got the scale. you want to hire because it's profitable to hire. but right now uncertainty. uncertainty. and the banks are really uncerta uncertain. i don't blame them. the banks don't know what's going to happen. >> were you surprised at all that the issue of housing? most people's wealth, their investments, their sense of security is tied up in their home. the issue of housing really didn't come up the other night. >> how could that not have happened? >> that's what i'm asking you. >> how could we have 1.7 million housing starts five years ago and now we're content with 500,000? why are we building the same number of houses in 1961 when we had 50% of the people in this country? that is a great issue because when you build housing, you put a lot of people to work. 10% of the economy directly related to housing. >> we've had a year of paralysis in washington. the president decided a year ago nothing was going to get done. that caused a lot of uncertainty because the big chunks that people are worried about, taxes, spending, deficit. it's got to be taken care of. a quarter of his term has been

political fighting. that's why the uncertainty scares people, not just the fiscal cliff but dealing with the fiscal cliff. >> mika, i think you're right. i think you're right. whatever you said was right. >> mm-hmm. >> jim cramer, thank you very much. >> blank check. >> she gets a blank check. >> not great number. i'm afraid. not great number. >> we'll see you on "mad money." >> thank you. >> weeknights at 6:00 and 11 on cnbc. >> it's an amazing show. our conversation with ed asner. first a story of courage and survival in nazi-occupied poland. >> look at this, it's a family reunion, mika! >> author matthew brzezinski joins us next. come here. i didn't see you standing over there. how are you doing? it's great to see you.

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it's time for another family hour here on "morning joe." joining us now, author matthew brzezinski. he is out with a new book, "isaac's army: a story of courage and survival in na nazi-occupied poland." great to have you here.

he's my cousin. we spent a lot of time together growing up. he beat me up a lot, too. >> did you beat mika up? >> i did not. i actually have to say, it's unnerving going on television for we writers. but it's especially unnerving when the interviewer knows all the stupid things you did when you were 12. >> exactly. >> and can bring them up at any time. >> what about 16, 17 and 18? don't forget those years because those were horrible. >> there's a police report about that. >> you talk about isaac's army and you talk about the brutality that jews in poland underwent starting in 1939 when the nazi troops came in, but about a remarkable underground movement that over the next four years would lead to the warsaw uprising. >> i mean, this book, what drew me to this book is it's really about sort of the extremes of human behavior. you have courage on one hand and cruelty on the other. and what amazed me in researching the book and meeting

with people is how we're all capable of this. it's in all of us. and, you know, when i set out, i was, like, well, i'm looking for jewish heroes. what is it about these particular people that they experienced -- they went through unbelievable hell. they fought against incredible odds. perhaps no other in modern history. >> we're talking about quickly the brutality that mounted, the germans came in and almost immediately after occupying poland and warsaw, the walls went up. you said naked bodies were soon found spread out all across -- >> that took a couple of years, actually. and that's the genius of the germans. that this was all very -- everything was incremental. so the germans come in in 1939. the walls don't go up until well over a year later. the people don't start starving to death, typhus doesn't start hitting until another year later. it was the genius of the germans that this happened so slowly

that the unimaginable that was happening was unimaginable to the people that it was happening to. they couldn't believe this is happening to us, when they started hearing reports of oh, my god, after the invasion of the soviet union in 1941, they started hearing reports of mass, mass murders in parts of poland that were now under german control. and they were, like, in warsaw, we can't believe that people are getting slaughtered. this is impossible. this can't be happening. and well, that happened there, but it will never happen here. and there was the genius of the germans that they gave people just that little bit of hope. and people clung very desperately to that hope. >> so you base this book on first-person accounts, on diaries, on surviving relatives stories. tell us about this cast of characters that take us through this book. because they sound incredible. >> the book is named after isaac zuckerman who is a big blond kid, very charismatic guy who

was a zionist before the war. and it is really his efforts that lead to the creation of an underground. very amateurish. he's leading an army of teenagers who have no military experience. and they're living sealed in the warsaw ghetto where the death rate is 1,000 people a day are dying of typhus or starvation or whatnot. and they have to then basically, out of nothing, create a military structure. they have to build their own weapons. they have to sneak out of the ghetto to try to buy weapons on the black market. they launch this astonishing uprising. for 28 days, they stun the s.s. who are not expecting this at all. then they sneak out, the survivors of that, sneak out through the sewers, regroup on what is then known as the aryan side, meaning outside of the ghetto, go on to fight in the citywide uprising a year later

where 200,000 -- this is the largest uprising of world war ii -- 200,000 people die. you know, it is just a slaughter. then the soviets come in. you know, when the soef jet vie in, the secret police is coming in, and they have to navigate that new minefield. and eventually, they have to smuggle their way into palestine. it's an epic tale stretching from '39 all the way to 1946. >> talk a little more about what happened to isaac zuckerman. >> isaac ended up founding a kibbutz in israel. you know, it really -- i did want to focus on sort of the happy -- this is supposed to be an uplifting story. the backdrop is this horrific death, obviously, but it's a story about the undaunted human spirit. so isaac, after the soviets came in, isaac rather, you know, rather shrewdly exploited some of his contacts within the new

communist-backed government. and they, in fact, use the success -- the predecessor of the kgb to sort of run the blockades, the british blockade and get hundreds of thousands of holocaust survivors into what was then palestine to found, eventually to found israel. and i think he could have made a real political career, obviously. he could have possibly been prime minister. and he just said, you know what? i'm done. and he wants to attend to his vegetable garden on his kibbutz and lead a quiet, you know, sort of peaceful life. he did and passed away in the 1980s. >> the book is "isaac's army: a story of courage and survival in nazi-occupied poland." matthew brzezinski, thank you and it's great to see you. you look wonderful. >> thank you. so do you. >> i'm proud of you. ahead this morning, chuck todd. keep it right here on "morning joe." with the spark cash card from capital one,

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still ahead, the all-important monthly jobs report. what will it mean for the economy? and the presidential race. up next, ed asner joins us on set. we'll ask the legendary actor about his big roles from lou grant to fdr to his return to broadway. stay with us. we'll be right back. i'm with sandra who just got these great glasses. you paid...wow. hmmm. let's see if walmart can help you find the same look for less. okay. see? walmart has all these leading eyewear brands and styles. rockstar! really? yeah. oh, wow! oh, black frame looks good on you. yeah?

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ed asner. lou grant, which he portrayed on both the sitcom, the mary tyler moore show and its dramatic spin-off. lou grant. he is the only actor to win emmys for playing the same character in both a comedy and a drama. in a few clicks you can get full episodes of both shows with the tivo premiere dvr. nobody finds your entertainment like tivo. >> joining us on the set emmy award winning actor ed asner. very good to have you onboard.

you're starring in the new broadway play "grace." it's really great to have you on. an honor. >> thank you. >> my gosh. can you believe this, willie? >> this is huge. >> a legend. >> so, ed, you're back on broadway. this is the first time since 1989. let's talk about "grace." you said it was a really important play for you. >> oh, yeah. >> why is it? why is it so special? >> it discusses god from many aspects, religion from many aspects, morality, getting carried away with god is as offensive as denying god. >> i was going to ask you personally. you obviously have a problem with people proselytizing and getting in your face about god, but do you believe in god? >> i haven't made up my mind. >> you got time. >> yeah. i don't think so. >> you've got time, my man.

>> yeah. >> in your absence from the stage, and you've been so successful in everything you've chosen to do, did you realize how much you may have missed the instant feedback from a live audience? >> well, i would like to say yes because this play means so much to me, but i've been touring for three years with a one man show of "fdr" and i know i don't look like him, i don't sound like him but, boy, i love to preach him. >> i bet. who are you politically? through time, because -- >> they would be too liberal for you. >> well who are they? >> you'd probably be surprised. >> not for me. >> i know. >> well, hell you could go with carl marx with her. >> oh, please stop it. >> we need leaders who inspire. who inspired you?

>> roosevelt certainly. god the father when he died. i mean, would we ever live again? i liked george mcgovern a lot. i loved what he stood for. granted, they crucified him. forgive me for using a religious expression. but he was a good man and continued to be a good man. i haven't been pleased with most of the others since and if i like them personally, fine. but the results were not what i wanted. >> what about barack obama? he came four years ago with a lot of hope. you were actually out front supporting senator obama. are you pleased with what he has done? do you think he's pulled back like some progressives believe? >> hasn't been brave enough for

me. >> on what issues? >> any of them. >> i thought all of his measures were taken haltingly and halfway measures. they should have been plunges just as fdr did. >> it's so fascinating hearing you talking about fdr when he died not knowing if the world was going to go on. i remember my mother, she was 12 at the time when fdr died and she said that they went home scared because they didn't know. >> sure. >> what was next. my mom said fdr was king and we wanted him to be king forever. we loved him. we adored him. and it just makes you wonder why we can't get politicians today who of course aren't fdr. nobody will be like fdr again but can at least get the respect that our leaders used to get. >> well, i grew up in a household where both my parents, my mother and my father, were convinced and i think rightly so, that franklin delano

roosevelt saved this country. >> it's amazing how he gave the working man a feeling of equality. i had a friend who told me how he came on the back of a train to hartford, connecticut where all the insurance companies had come out against him and he said, my friends, i want you to know that if you vote for me, the insurance companies will fail. he just bit them right in the mouth. >> in hartford. >> all right. ed asner, thank you so much for being with us. >> the broadway play is "grace." ed asner, it is so great to meet you and an honor to have you on the show. >> i'm honored to be with you. >> thank you so much. >> did you know that ed asner has played santa claus five times? and if you had tivo premier to

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check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic. good morning. it's 8:00 a.m. on the east coast 5:00 a.m. on the west coast as you take a live look at new york city. mika, who is with us today? >> first you have to tell everyone it's time to wake up. mark halperin joins us and donny

deutsch. >> okay. the kids will be talking about it all weekend. >> i'm still curious about what everybody is waiting for in those first debates. i don't want to be cynical. i am not quite sure what is going to happen there that is going to flip the switch. we've seen these guys. i know we haven't seen them together. give me a scenario, for instance an actual back and forth that could actually happen that you would go, save one of them. >> what if one didn't show up? >> would you like me to support my original thesis? number one among undecided 5% one-quarter of those, a 1% shift. number two, every poll before the first debate usually ends up being the stand up poll at the end. number three more importantly actually the leader, the front-runner now gets to be the underdog in the next one. what is it going to change? >> the outcome of the election.

>> no it's not. what can we bet right now in a serious bet in front of the american public about 6 million people watching as we speak, let's make a meaningful bet. >> you're not even talking about armed forces radio. what about the troops? why do you hate the troops? >> okay. 20 million people watching. let's make a serious bet. did he win the debate? slam dunk. embarrassment. >> okay. >> what can we bet it is not changing this election? >> i'll think about something. i do think what happens is it changes on the margins. suddenly florida, nevada, colorado, virginia, north carolina, all of these swing states that were close, i think, if ryan/romney have a couple more good debates those all go into the romney column. but at the end of the day though the question is can he make up the big difference in ohio? can he make up the big

difference in wisconsin? because if he doesn't win ohio he's going to win wisconsin, the romney people still think he can. i tell you, after that debate and after barack obama's performance, which was staggeringly bad. >> all right. >> no, i mean it. >> okay. >> i'm hearing this from democrats. and this broke through, you know, we always hear about how americans aren't paying attention. they're looking at reality. so this broke through. everybody was talking. but not just how well romney did but how badly the president performed. >> well, just as i think it was premature to declare the race over before, i think it's too soon to say that performance is widely watched as it was and as strong as it was is actually going to move numbers. we've yet to see any numbers move. i think they probably will some and i think that on the other hand did governor romney win the day yesterday in the news cycle given how strong he was thursday night? he didn't decisively win it. he did one event late in the

day. he did one event late in the day. look at the evening newscast, the morning papers. >> he doesn't have to win every day. >> i think he has to win most days. he lost about two months of days. i think he's got to win and for them to come out yesterday and not win the cycle again i think the numbers will move. i don't think the race is over either way. i think they need -- they're still wasting time. >> i'm glad, mika, they actually kept him back a little bit. let's not have a mistake the day after the great night. >> it was probably one of the strategies. in terms of numbers moving, 67 million people, viewers according to nielsen with a few million more watching online saw the debate. and yesterday the president was on the campaign trail. large crowds awaited both candidates actually on the trail. obama, president obama greeted by some 30,000 supporters in madison, wisconsin, came out ready to fight back finally and showed some of the fire that people were looking for in denver. >> when i got on the stage, i

met this very spirited fellow who claimed to be mitt romney. but i know it couldn't have been mitt romney because the real mitt romney has been running around the country for the last year promising $5 trillion in tax cuts that favor the wealty y and yet the fellow on the stage last night who looked like mitt romney said he did not know anything about that. i just want to make sure i got this straight. he'll get rid of regulations on wall street but he's going to crack down on "sesame street." thank goodness somebody is finally cracking down on big bird. who knew that he was responsible for all these deficits? >> mika, what were your thoughts about barack obama not being able to deliver a single line like that when he didn't have the teleprompter and yesterday reading what his staff wrote for him so effectively on that stage with 30,000 people? >> well, it bothered me.

we watch this every day. it seemed like some people might have been screaming at the tv saying, why aren't you saying that right now to him? it seemed prepared. it's almost like -- but maybe that is the strategy. it was not satisfying. >> willie, it -- >> it's like a it took a whole day to respond. >> he carries this around with him now where people are waiting to the next debate to see. >> yeah. >> what is the depth of the understanding of the policies he is debating and reading on tell prompters? yesterday as he was reading the lines off that teleprompter you sat there going oh, my gosh. he contact say one of these things spontaneously and wednesday night but he can read it pretty well off the teleprompter. like bill maher said, a guy that gave a million dollars to the campaign. i can't believe i'm saying this but obama really needs his teleprompter. >> in real time on twitter or during the debate you had

progressives answering mitt romney's attacks in real time on twitter fighting back. >> thousands of progressives. >> but i do think on the next one though, we talked about expectations. now mitt romney is this great debater and buried president obama in the first debate so if president obama does even pretty well and starts to fight back you know the press will come along and others will say the president is back. he was unprepared the first time. i'll be interested to see how long this first debate carried mitt romney. if the president has a good second debate does it wipe out the first one? >> i have a theory. it wasn't that he didn't have the facts at his command. it was that strategically they said going in so much you're here. he's there. there is none of this. there is none of this. when he talks you don't look at him. when you talk you don't look at him. you don't even respond to him. he's not there. that's what translated to the pathetic performance and seemed to not have the facts at his hands. i think it was an over arching

no engagement strategy. these were simple rebutals. >> i'm saying this not as a conservative or republican but as an analyst that can turn on tv shows and listen and go online and see progressives online. seeing bloggers, seeing cable news people answering the questions. this is one of the great frustrations that chris matthews had and ed and the entire panel and msnbc. they were so angry and i think for good reason because there were basic retorts. >> it's not just the analysts but the average american had the answers for that. >> right. >> okay. chris matthews knew and he didn't know. every person i talked to said why didn't he say this? he couldn't not have the answers. >> hold on. joe, this isn't a debate for chris matthews or ed. this is a debate to win the election. i can't imagine he had none of

those answers at his disposal. it may have been disappointing but there was something else going on. you have the jobs numbers coming out at 8:30 this morning. you have a lot of other things in play and he's in a certain position in this race. there must have beennumber -- as flummoxing as it was to watch a strategy. >> debates are where you show your depth of understanding about politics. and i've seen a thousand debates. i've participated in, you know, scores of debates. you know immediately. you can look around the stage to people to the left or right of you how deep can they go? by the way, they pick up in your eyes while you're looking across at them, a couple times where a guy was about to do a cheap shot and i'd lean in and say you want to? come on. let's go. and they back off immediately. barack obama, it happened with hillary clinton time and time

again where hillary clinton, chris dodd, joe biden, out debated barack obama in every single debate back in 2008. every single debate. chris dodd, joe biden, hillary clinton just ran circles around him and people get -- at some point you just have to say because he doesn't have his -- i mean, as great of a grasp on the issues as the people he's debating. >> that's sobering but true. i believe it's the professor versus -- >> how can you be president of the united states, mark halperin and not have these basic answers? >> well, it's more the format i think than not having the answers. he spent a lot of the evening going after mitt romney for things that he thinks he can win the election on like taxes and medicare. it wasn't like he never responded to him. >> isn't the format in washington that you get in a room with someone and you go at it and try and figure it out? >> and that's what we're asking.

has he been too isolated? listen, we talked to him -- the guy is brilliant. he really is. but has he become so isolated there's not the back and forth with even democratic leadership? because the democrats will tell you he doesn't talk to them all the time. >> he doesn't listen to them. >> and he doesn't listen to them. >> he is pretty confident of his own views. there are a lot of elements to why the performance is bad starting with he's not that great a debater but he ended up in a room with a guy who from his first answer was not the version of mitt romney that he practiced against. all the prep he did and he didn't do as much as he might have, all the prep was against john kerry channelling the mitt romney we've seen for the last five years. >> you know what is interesting, mika, is steve schmidt was on yesterday and he would call me during the 2008 campaign and it used to drive him crazy and the mccain campaign crazy about how arrogant the obama team was. it was like they don't respect us at all.

he'd go they don't think we have any chance. and that was the attitude that they set forth. and i've just got to believe also there was a huge level of over confidence going into that romney debate kind of like the dukakis team had in 1988 that they were the smartest people on the planet and they looked down on the lee atwaters and sort of the great unwashed. and i think maybe he was in shock that mitt romney came out and was effective as he was. >> maybe they felt and rightfully so they didn't really need the debate as much as they thought they did. >> maybe they listened to donny. >> but i want to know, mark, what you meant by mitt romney, who he was during the debate versus the mitt romney that the president might have been practicing against of the past few months or past few years. what are the differences? >> he talked in a different way. his focus was different in terms of what he talked about. he was comfortable with himself. he didn't radiate a

vulnerability of the kind i think the president was planning to exploit. and he was very careful in the words he chose. again, didn't leave a lot of openings for the president to go after him. >> i'll tell you something else that happened. we saw their cores. obviously this has been talked to death as far as barack being a professor. we saw a businessman. when you're a businessman by trade you're one-on-one. you are not in front of audiences where romney is not good. when you are a professor which we saw five minutes ago in front of 30,000 you are speaking out, never one-on-one. the very thing we chastised him for, he is a businessman, negotiator, that is basically day to day you're debating as a business person. >> and by the way the president doesn't like one-on-ones. he does not like one-on-ones at all. again, when i say he doesn't like one-on-ones i'm not talk l personally but just what democratic senators have told me. republican senators say, well either you discount it because there is a big ideological war

but we hear it time and time again from democratic senators, democratic house members. he doesn't talk to us. he doesn't like being with us. you know, i -- on a personal level i really respect the fact. he likes hanging out with his kids and his wife. >> yeah. >> and when he goes golfing he's not going to go golfing and do what bill clinton did and talk to lobbyists or talk to members that he's trying to persuade. he's like, it's my time. i understand that logic. and i respect it a great deal. i really do. personally i'm sort of, it's like i did it my way sort of thing but i think it has isolated him so much over the past four years that maybe that's why he got hit, blindsided like that. >> he better learn to pretend to like one-on-one over the next couple debates because if he has another debate like that he is going to find himself in deep trouble. we shouldn't take anything as bad as the president was don't take anything away from mitt romney.

he was prepared. he was everything you could ask forout of the debate. if you put wednesday night together with this jobs report, it might be a little better than august but it is not going to be a great number. put those two things together. mitt romney has a moment to turn the election. just a question of whether he can do it. >> somebody asked me this question yesterday. you guys that love an answer can anybody around here remember a time when the spirits of the campaign so sharply shifted in one day? because what i heard yesterday, i mean, if i was in northwest florida i'd be hearing the republicans saying hey how great. but i was in manhattan. and all i heard was one democratic friend after another after another just wringing their hands going, what happened? they're just in shock probably like the day after john kerry

lost. >> are any of them changing their votes? >> no, not the democrats. but i will tell you that there are a hell of a lot of independents and swing voters in that 67 million that are sitting there asking whether the president is up to the task over the next few years. >> 5%. so even if he gets 20% based on that. >> donny, the election is not over. go to the hamptons this weekend. >> i stop after labor day. >> go to palm beach. have you guys ever, though, seen such a turn-around? >> no. spirit is the word. >> it's just unbelievable. >> one of the things i think is overlooked about why this could matter so much is these are both politically appealing, talented guys. they wouldn't be where they were without it. we all know what was politically appealing and personally appealing about the president. we see it almost every day. even if you don't like the president you got to respect his political skills. in wisconsin yesterday. romney haters don't understand why that was so potentially potent is his performance was real. that is what mitt romney is like

off television. he did on television -- republicans were revived because that guy in the debate could win. >> coming up we're just minutes away from the september jobs report and we'll get complete analysis from cnbc's brian sullivan and bloomberg's josh green. up next msnbc political director chuck todd. and miles nadal joins us onset. first bill karins with a check on the weekend forecast. >> big changes coming to the east coast this upcoming weekend already being felt in the northern plains. yesterday was the first snowstorm of the season up in north dakota and northern minnesota. areas like fargo and all the way up to grand fork picked up around 2 to 3 inches of snow. leaves are still on the trees. numerous people lost power in northern portions of north dakota and minnesota. let me take you through the weekend forecast. today the last really warm, beautiful day on the east coast. by sunday all the cold air in the middle of the country sweeps to the eastern seaboard. we'll watch a little rain too in

coastal areas from d.c. to the mid-atlantic to southern new england. as far as the weekend forecast goes i'm telling you this is going to be the warmest day, probably for the eastern seaboard. watch the temperatures plunge. definitely sunday. it looks like the rest of the country should be okay with nice, cool weather through out the rest of the middle of the nation. if you're joining us on the west coast you're not going to see any rain soon. st. louis, you are one of those spots with some clouds and chilly weather today. you're watching morning joe. have a great weekend everybody. we're brewed by starbucks. ♪

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we want to make sure we have a chance -- >> i just wish you'd shut your yapper a little bit. all right. i respect the governor. >> do us all a favor and just -- we don't need you. >> okay. >> i think that's a little -- >> well i think it's a little personal. >> you can do whatever you want. we're here. >> i'm the moderator here. >> hold on. i'm going to have to ask you to step down. okay? >> now listen. >> okay. >> if -- >> oop -- >> okay. >> i know what you're doing. >> ah -- >> that's just a noise. >> would you shut the [ bleep ] up? >> welcome back. 21 past the hour. joining us now chairman and ceo of the holding company mdc

partners miles nadal. and in washington, nbc news chief white house correspondent and host of the daily rundown chuck todd. gentlemen. miles. how are you? >> chuck, 24 hours later give us some info. how has this race changed in 24 hours? >> bmt folks have lost their swagger, their confidence, and you have a republican base and it's beyond the base. i would say it's the republican community of donors, opinion leaders, who suddenly believe again. that combination, that shift of swagger if you will, has moved from the obama campaign, the perception. and, you know, in a debate, it's always been interesting over the couple of decades watching debates. sometimes you can lose the debate but at least get something back in the post debate.

yesterday i felt as if, mark murray put it this way. democrats sort of doubled down on their panic. they were really upset the night of the debate and then they acted like they did the day virilli did the supreme court oral arguments and everybody assumed doom and gloom on the health care law where you had democrats publicly hammering. yesterday they sort of amplified the fact that they have no confidence all of a sudden going forward. >> it's crazy. i asked the question earlier, of everybody on the panel. nobody could think of a time nor could i, when the spirit of the campaigns, both campaigns. >> just changed. >> changed overnight. the republicans went from thinking our backs are against the wall and we may lose this thing. all the conspiracy theories were hatched from a desperate, angry base. >> the polls. you know, joe. we all cook the polls. >> just look at my twitter feed. the rage against me last weekend from republicans is now a rage

against me from liberal democrats who said that yesterday we were all part of the grand conspiracy that barack obama actually won the debates. it's just that mitt romney was lying and we're helping him in that lie. >> it's funny. before my twitter feed was you guys do everything you can to destroy mitt romney and the republicans. now it's -- you guys are propping romney up. what are you doing? >> you can always tell who is losing. you can always tell who is losing by looking at the rage on the twitter feed. >> that's true. it's a great way of putting it. the ragier it is on one side you're like uh-oh. they're in trouble. >> exactly. miles? >> look, historically, you said this, if you had more than 7.3% unemployment, no president has ever won. yet the polls indicated that obama was in the lead. you need 3% gdp growth to keep unemployment flat. we're going to wait and get

numbers. and they're going to be what they're going to be. 113,000 new jobs, 118,000 new jobs. the practical reality is we had 2.5% gdp growth a year ago. we have 1.3% gdp growth. it's nowhere near 3%. we are creating more unemployment. now they'll come out with new numbers. they're going to say it was 8.1% unemployment, 8.2%. and you say, well, you know for sure there's less people employed. how is that the case? so they'll say more structurally unemployed. more people permanently out of the work force. more people are out of the work force for more than 12 months. the problem is that the average person when you see all these numbers, you sort of -- and the president gave you facts that gave you to believe the economy was good creating all these new jobs, things were strong. what you saw, though, when he didn't have the teleprompter, he didn't have all the facts and information, he couldn't really give you a strong feeling of confidence that he was going to

be a fiscal manager and is going to make things get better. and they're not going to get better until these decisions are made. one thing about romney. he is really bright. and he has real fiscal experience. and the problem you've got, you know, what you have now is you have some strength and belief that the universe will unfold the way it should. don't you think? >> you know, i think, willie, obviously that the other night it looked like you had the businessman versus the professor. it's unbelievable again how ill prepared the president was but also how well romney was on his game. >> yeah. romney was on his game. it's hard to believe you'll see the president that ill prepared next time around. that is going to change. chuck, the reality remains for mitt romney. it ceremony was a great night. when you look at the state of ohio if you believe the polls from last week it's eight to ten points. can that performance combine with the jobs number and really

close a gap that big in a state i think most of us agree he is going to have to win or at least put together some other improbable combination of swing states to win. >> well, i put it in a trio of states that is all in the same region and same issues. wisconsin, iowa, ohio. you know, if you're going to -- if you can't get there in ohio, and i have some doubts and we'll see if it's moved and we've changed our polling schedule because we want to go back into ohio sooner to see but then you better replace it with both iowa and wisconsin. >> yeah. >> the campaign tactically looks like on the romney side and among republican strategists that they're quietly seeing they believe they can put iowa back in play and they're trying to see which one is going to be better, wisconsin or ohio. i'll say, by the way, did the romney campaign really launch fireworks last night? that was sort of a little soon. you could have swagger but be careful, you know, how much do you gloat? it was one debate. let's see if you've moved the needle in ohio. it was a little much. can you imagine if it had been flipped and what the response

would have been had there been fireworks after that obama rally. >> i think that we're going to see what happens. ohio, though, the romney people were saying even before the debate they thought ohio was still within reach. the columbus dispatch poll said nine points. it is going to be fascinating to see what the polls show this next week. a lot of it may hinge on what happens in three minutes. we've got the jobs report coming out and the obama campaign obviously crossing their fingers. >> we'll bring that to you live. chuck and miles stay with us. the jobs number is moments away. we'll be right back. [ female announcer ] ready for a taste of what's hot? check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic.

breaking news. the jobs numbers are out the lowest since january of 2009. >> 7.8%. that politically is great news. however, you got to scratch your heads. 114,000 nonfarm jobs added. you have to have 150,000 just to keep up with population growth. i'm not an economist but this has to mean that more and more people, miles nadal, are discouraged and have just stopped looking for work. if you're not even having enough jobs created to keep up with population growth, and the unemployment rate drops 0.3 percentage points that can only mean one thing, right? people are distressed.

the economy is so bad they've just given up. >> yeah. i mean, these are fungible -- the unemployment rate is a fungible number. you need 3% gdp growth as i said to keep unemployment flat. >> right. >> as willie said you need 150,000 jobs approximately to keep unemployment flat. here when you have 114,000, which is an anemic number in relation to where we were. we were at 155,000 earlier in the year. >> right. >> the only reason why the unemployment rate is lower is because you have more people that are structurally unemployed, more people permanently unemployed, and more people unemployed for more than 12 months. >> let's bring in right now cnbc's brian sullivan. chuck todd also still with us. let's start, chuck, with you. another mixed bag. it seems all summer. >> right. >> it's been a mixed bag politically for the white house who is happy when the rate goes down for political reasons but very concerned by how weak the job growth continues to be.

and 114,000 is not good. >> what's been interesting that we found in our -- we have seen is these numbers seem to have a bigger impact on the tone of coverage for a day or two on the campaign but the public sort of has already absorbed the economy through their own prism. one of the things we saw on our nbc "wall street journal" poll is you have a partisan way of viewing. >> right. >> where the economy is. if you've come to the conclusion you're going to be with the president then you believe things are looking up. you believe the country is headed in the right direction. if you are deciding you're with romney you think the country is headed in the wrong direction so we are seeing more of a partisan split a little bit but you do have independents who have tilted toward believing the economy is getting better and things are recovering and that was, all of that bump had come basically since the bill clinton speech in the democratic convention. >> brian sullivan, we have two different story lines here politically, 7.8 the lowest

unemployment rate since when? >> january of 2009. >> that's something the president can brag about today but, brian, cue us in. it certainly seems to me that with the numbers at 114,000 continuing to be anemic, it's not good news for the economy. >> it's not good news for the economy because as we've talked about you really need 125,000 jobs created a month to keep up with population and immigration growth so there is not a lot of net new jobs added but i will push back a little bit and say this. the number is good for the president. sort of to chuck todd's point which is this. we could talk about the labor force participation rate until everybody's eyes roll into the back of their head and they keel over. right? it's something that's difficult to discuss. what matters is that headline number with a seven handle on the street. 7.8%. whatever the reason the president can now say i've brought the unemployment rate below 8%. i think that's a big win. i think it is a very important

number for president obama to have it sub 8. >> again just to push back with you though, brian, the only reason that number went down below 8 is because, not because we're adding jobs to bring the unemployment rate down but because people have stopped looking for work. right? >> i agree with that. the labor force participation rate at 65.6% rate is awful. absolutely agreed. why it's that low, is it retirees, kids that are 22 giving up? who knows? but that's a harder political thing to sell than saying, hey. we're below 8%. right? >> yes. >> i mean, that's the headline that is going to matter to the majority of americans that don't watch cnbc every day. >> let me ask you a question. don't you believe as a leading indicator of the health and well being of our economy it is much more about gdp growth than it is about the employment numbers? because if you have got 1.3% gdp growth, you're almost at stall

speed. you know that at 3% you've got a reasonably healthy economy. our gdp growth a year ago was double where it is right now. the momentum is negative. to me that's a much greater indication about the health of the economy. >> right. >> and where consumers should feel confident. >> so let me cut in here quickly. mark halperin, i want to make sure we have this sourced right. you actually have information that the participation rate did not drop. >> it went up 0.1. but historically it is still very, very low. >> historically it's low but what do the numbers mean? >> you have job growth. >> right. >> lower unemployment but more people participating. i don't see how that adds up. the biggest thing politically. >> it's bizarre. >> republicans can no longer say above 8% his entire presidency. >> willie, what are you looking at? >> the same thing as we talked about participation as more

people began to look for work in semt. it was at a terrible place the month before but has ticked up a little bit. >> you also know when people are unemployed for more than 12 months they are eliminated from that calculation. >> that is true. >> again, that might -- let's bring in josh green right now, bloomberg business week. maybe it's long-term unemployment. josh, these numbers have always, the unemployment rate has always been confusing. why don't you help us out since you work for one of the richest men in the world? >> i have to say i have a much different take on the jobs report than you guys do. first of all there were 418,000 new people who came into the work force in september. this was not a case of the unemployment rate dropping because people were leaving. the other good news buried in this report is that the numbers were revised upward for july and august. so last month if you guys remember the headline number was 96,000. that's now been revised upward to i think 142,000. so what we're seeing i think behind the number is evidence of

stronger job growth. >> yes. >> 114,000, defining economy down here? >> yes. i think that is a good point. we have been all year. but in terms of this is right on the median analysts' estimate in the bloomberg survey and buried beneath there is some good news. not just the headline number 7.8% but the fact that the revisions are upward. that is the trend you want, the trend you're looking for when you're trying to discern an economic recovery. i think all in all this is probably good news for obama although not enough to over shadow his belly flop in the debate the other night. >> ignoring the politics of the headline for a moment, i guess my question is, if people think that this is a leading indicator, the economy is strengthening, do you think there is a positive revision coming to gdp growth? and if not, then i believe these things are irrelevant. until you start revising gdp growth positively to get up to

2.5%, 3% kind of growth but at least going in the right direction, don't you think, brian, at the end of the day these things are meaningless to the structural improvements of the economy? >> i agree a hundred percent but i also think there are two issues we seem to be debating here today. right? there is the actual economy when you dig down into the numbers and there is the political perception of the economy as chuck todd said to the prism of everybody's own experience. i'll piggy back on what josh said. great points. the two most optimistic things i see as i dig down and the releases are just ridiculous. the government needs help in putting out these numbers in a more sensible fashion. which is the number of people that were unemployed less than five weeks dropped dramatically year over year and it says to me if you lose your job, the odds of you getting a job quicker have gone back up. which is a good thing to avoid that long-term structural unemployment, miles, that you were hitting on earlier. all in all i would say it is a fairly positive jobs number. yes we have structural problems

with the economy. 2% growth is effectively flat when you factor in inflation and everything else but let's not confuse the debates. the real economy, the political perception. >> all the different -- it's a long conversation about the dismal state we're still in. having said that this number good or bad for the president? >> great for the president if you go based on twitter right now and the people i follow who are conservative they're about to make a huge mistake. they are going to say the ls numbers are horrible. some people already saying the numbers are made up to help the president politically. they have to find a way to talk about the economy and why governor romney would be better not to try to -- >> exactly. >> the polls for the last two months to attack the methodology, these numbers are good not only symbolically but they represent the economy moving in a better direction. >> does it turn the page from a dismal debate performance or does it -- >> i think it depends fully on how the two sides handle it today. it certainly is good news to the president. it's good news for the country.

>> my concern is that i am afraid that the headline is going to be viewed positively by voters. 7.8%. that big headline even though i don't believe it's an indication of the true health of the economy, i am afraid that that's going to be the thing that sticks in people's minds and i do think it is positive for the president because when he can say it's the lowest number since he took over, you know, since january, 2009, that's a very big positive. >> and you were holding up, hold that up for the camera. the drudge report. >> drudge report. even the drudge report. >> okay. what have we got? there we go. >> even the drudge report very happy news. >> so, willie, again, it is a confusing -- it is confusing because we're told you have to get 125 -- 150,000 jobs just to keep up with growth.

come on. someone explain this. this doesn't make sense. if more people are looking for work and we're not bringing, hiring enough people to keep up with inflation, and you have a huge drop. how does that make sense? again, i just -- the labor department needs to explain this to us. >> well i agree with you, joe. we need to learn more about the people that are dropping out of the work force. right? 7600 people in america turned 60 years old every single day. there are a lot of people that are leaving the work force through natural demographic shifts. they are simply retiring. that is a very different situation than if a 22-year-old in their parent's basement has given up finding work or the person out of work for more than a year says forget it. i'm out. i'll never get a job again or they can't get a job again. >> right. >> let's not forget quickly there are two economies here. if you have a four-year college degree and are over 25 years,

old guys, that is structural full unemployment. a bifurcated economy. >> josh green, how does this play into the other sort of narrative that businesses are so uncertain they won't hire? does this affect it at all? >> i think it really cuts against that to be honest. let's remember one reason this number went down is because we didn't just add 114,000 new jobs. there were upward revisions in august and july. we're talking well over 200,000 new jobs. i think that is evidence business is getting off the sidelines and hiring. there are still big headwinds. you have the fiscal cliff coming, all sorts of uncertainty with the presidential election but all in all good news. >> all right. brian sullivan, josh green, miles nadal thank you very much. as we covered this breaking news. >> i don't mean to sound like the executive in "big." i don't get it. i don't get it. >> just to give you clarity. >> no, no. again, somebody has got to explain the matrix by which they do this. that's fine. you know, the number goes down

it's good political news. >> joe, could i just say something? the smartest economist over the last 24 hours, there are a dozen of them. said they think 113,000 to 118,000 new jobs. translated into 8.1 to 8.2% unemployment. comes in at 7.8. the number came in right in the middle of it. >> it does not make sense. >> we'll be back.

welcome back. we're still scratching our heads. these numbers, you look at all the, look at the matrix, how it's set up. these numbers don't make any sense. >> we need more explanation. we're reading through the report in great detail right now because 114,000 jobs were added which is below population

growth. a lot of people who projected that number as miles said, said if it comes down about 113 or 120 you get about 8.1% unemployment. and now we've had a major tick down to 7.8% unemployment. so we're still working through this. >> this isn't a time when we are seeing the worst long-term unemployment in recent history. >> and the participation rates are historically low. there is an uptick of 0.1%. these numbers don't add up. you said jack welch who has been called by many the ceo of the past quarter century, a guy we know very well. jack welch has an opinion on this. >> he has a tweet being widely retweeted. i read from jack's certified twitter account. unbelievable job numbers. these chicago guys will do anything. can't debate so change numbers. >> okay. >> that's quite a charge. >> by jack and mark barnicle, we know jack. he's nonpartisan. >> not going there. he said that with a wink, right?

>> i don't know. >> jack? >> let me tell you something seriously. these numbers don't add up. they just don't. again, i've got no dog in the fight here as far as the numbers go. >> you want them to be good. >> we all want them to be good. my dad was unemployed. i always, you know, conservatives always get angry at me when i cheer good economic news. but mike these numbers don't add up. it doesn't make sense it would drop to 7.8% with a weak participation rate and anemic number of jobs added. >> look, i am totally unqualified to weave my way through these. >> same here. >> i'm totally unqualified. i do know this though. these new unemployment numbers while offering promise and hope to a lot of people i'm sure won't offer promise or hope to an enormous number of people who are still unemployed in this country. there's a lot of unemployed people in this country. i don't know where the number

came from. i hope it's accurate i just don't know. >> mika, you talk about long-term unemployment. >> it's beyond people who have given up. it's people on all levels of the economic spectrum. middle manager, vice presidents, oo years old. >> people who aren't getting a job back ever. >> ever. not even close to half. >> we should be very clear. i don't think any of us at this table are suggesting the obama campaign or the white house is manipulating numbers. >> no. >> not at all. we're just digging through the report and want to get it explained. >> we just read jack welch's tweet for entertainment value. >> and to be transparent. >> i have to tell you. again, these numbers don't seem to add up. and so we need the labor department to explain. this is by the way though every month, every month that comes out this is such an inexact science. not just this month. it's nonsense. they have to figure out a more accurate way. >> the headline though is "good news for the president."

absolutely. >> the headline is huge political news for the president. >> we'll be right back with what we learned. you paid...wow. hmmm. let's see if walmart can help you find the same look for less. okay. see? walmart has all these leading eyewear brands and styles. rockstar! really? yeah. oh, wow! oh, black frame looks good on you. yeah? you can get a complete pair starting at just -- $38. really?! and did you know that our glasses come with a free 12-month replacement guarantee? i didn't know walmart had all this. the price is impressive, the quality is too! come to walmart and see for yourself. find quality eyewear brands starting at just $38. only at walmart. what are they fitting, aliens?

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check out the latest collection of snacks from lean cuisine. creamy spinach artichoke dip, crispy garlic chicken spring rolls. they're this season's must-have accessory. lean cuisine. be culinary chic. >> is this not great? listen. really quickly, willie, maybe we figured this out, the unemployment thing. maybe it was all the readjustments. >> i'm confused. you know what i do? i eat cake. >> bring out a cake. >> yes. if this were a regular morning show i'd put this right in your face and everyone would laugh. but actually this is for kate. it's her last day. >> all right. >> kate, you've been like the heart and soul of this show. u